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The main message is that the primary sources of error and bias are not those that have been the subject of the most attention — they are not human in origin. The reason of course, is the huge amount of averaging that is done to obtain global temperature estimates, this averaging essentially averages out most of the human induced noise.
Two tough sources of uncertainty remain: missing data and a poor definition of the space-time resolution; the latter leads to the key scale reduction factor. This paper is based on 6 monthly globally averaged temperature series over the common period using data that were publically available in May In the first part on relative uncertainties, the series are systematically compared with each other over scales ranging from months to years.
In the second part on absolute uncertainties, a stochastic model is developed with two parts. The model parameters are fit by treating each of the six series as a stochastic realization of the stochastic measurement process.
This yields an estimate of the uncertainty spread of the means of each series about the true temperature — an absolute uncertainty — not simply the spread of the series means about their common mean value the relative uncertainty. This represents the absolute uncertainty of the series means about a still unknown absolute reference point which is another problem for another post.
In fact, those using this graph to judge climate models reveal an elementary lack of understanding of climate data. A commenter brings news of an obviously wrong paper that has just appeared in Global and Planetary Change. The paper purports to be a radical revision of our understanding of the carbon cycle by Hermann Harde.
The key conclusions are and reality in green :. Since these points contradict multiple independent sources of evidence, I can, without hesitation, predict that there are fundament flaws in this paper that will raise serious questions about the quality of the peer-review that this paper went through. Notwithstanding our last post on the difficulty in getting comments published, this paper is crying out for one.
But this kind of thing has been done before, does not require any great sophistication or computer modeling to rebut, and has come up so many times before Salby also here , Beck , Segalstad , Jaworowski etc. Maybe the citizen scientists among you can pull together a rebuttal faster than the professionals? Social media is full of commentary of varying degrees of seriousness on the supposed replication crisis in science.
Whether this is really a crisis, or just what is to be expected at the cutting edge is unclear and may well depend on the topic and field. This is however just a subset of the difficulty that exists in getting any kind of comment on published articles accepted. Having been involved in many attempts — in the original journal or as a new paper — some successful, many not , it has become obvious to me that the effort to do so is wholly disproportionate to the benefits for the authors, and is thus very effectively discouraged.
I have thought for a long time that an independent journal venue for comments would be a good idea, but a tweet by Katharine Hayhoe last weekend made me realize that the replication issue might be well served by a similar approach. The patterns are very familiar — an initial claim of imperfection spiced up with insinuations of misconduct, coordination with a breathless hyping of the initial claim with ridiculous supposed implications, some sensible responses refuting the initial specific claims and demolishing the wilder extrapolations.
Meanwhile the misconduct and data falsification claims escape into the wild , get more exaggerated and lose all connection to any actual substance. For sure, the technical rebuttals to the specific claims compete with balance of evidence arguments and a little bit of playful trolling for the attention of anyone who actually cares about the details. None of which, unfortunately, despite being far more accurate, have the narrative power of the original meme. Assuming for the sake of politeness that sound and fury signifying nothing is not the main goal for at least some participants, the question arises: since this is so predictable why do people still keep making the same mistakes?
False information? Conspiracy theories? Hacked email? Climate scientists have known all this for decades. The reason is that our cattle population peaked in the s at about million head. Our dairy herd peaked in at Even with these lower populations, we are producing more beef and milk than ever. So, while beef and dairy efficiency have improved drastically, and there has been a substantial decrease in the population of cattle, other major causes of GHG emissions have expanded significantly.
If our elected employees develop plans to reduce GHG emissions, those plans constantly have a major component addressing cattle. Of course, the fact that the gas in question comes out the other end of the animal makes one wonder if some of those elected employees know their heads from their Even within the ag community, there are those who accept that climate change is real, while others do not.
I think even our entertainers and other experts would agree. Sjeklocha is a technical services veterinarian for Merck Animal Health. Reach him at beefdoc gmail. Each year, the Tuesday after Thanksgiving is earmarked to encouraging acts of kindness. Related: Cowboys Who Care Foundation gifts cowboy hats to kids with cancer. While there are many ways to spread joy and kindness this Christmas season , I decided it might be helpful to compile a list of agriculturally-based organizations and charities who are doing good work and serving others.
I certainly have my own personal favorites, but in compiling this list, I decided to crowdsource, so I asked Facebook for help. Based on the recommendations, here is a list of organizations and foundations in no particular order that are representing the agricultural industry well. This organization needs no introduction as I write about them frequently. To give these kids the bravery and grit often found in cowboys and cowgirls, this foundation has teamed up with Resistol to create custom cowboy hats that are soft enough for kids going through chemo treatments to wear.
These cowboys visit hospitals and encourage these kids to fight tough during such a challenging time in their young lives. Stockyards Ag Experience. In Sioux Falls, S. For many food insecure children, school breakfast and lunch may be their only decent meals throughout the week. Snack Pak 4 Kids gets nutrient-dense beef sticks in the hands of these kids to help fuel their evenings and weekends.
Hereford Youth Foundation of America. This foundation supports the next generation through scholarship, leadership and educational opportunities. The mission of this foundation is to build awareness, understanding and a positive public perception of agriculture through agricultural literacy programs.
This non-profit is an affiliate of the American Angus Associate and was established to support programs involving youth education and industry research. Families Feeding Families. Protect The Harvest was created to defend and preserve American freedoms and to support farmers, ranchers, outdoor enthusiasts, and animal owners. This club provides an opportunity for at least 10 kids each year to have livestock and other projects.
The Project H3LP! Lifemanship is the constant development and fine-tuning of the skills necessary for improving one's life. Project H3LP! Are there others you would add to this list? Thank you! The opinions of Amanda Radke are not necessarily those of beefmagazine. The idea of making a hay pad was brought to my attention almost 20 years ago by Jason Tower, a former Purdue University animal science graduate student and current manager of the Southern Indiana Purdue Agricultural Center.
This farm used hay pads to eliminate the problem of mud around the hay feeders, which are heavy-use areas. Site selection for the feeding pad is crucial. Ultimately, it would be near the hay storage area and away from water, like streams and ponds. If the site is level, the surface of the pad should be slightly higher at the center, gently sloping to all sides.
If the site has a gentle slope, then the pad should follow the topography of the land and gently slope to one side. With a slope, the entrance and exit from the pad should be on the high side of the pad. Related: Be strategic in feeding hay this winter. In general, there should be 10 to 12 feet of rock and limestone for the cattle to stand on around the bale feeder Figures 1 and 2.
The option of placing hay rings side by side will reduce the total footprint, saving money, but you must ensure there is enough bunk space for the entire herd to eat at the same time. If square or rectangular hay feeders are used instead of round bale feeders , smaller hay pads can be used. Maintenance of the feeding pad is necessary.
Remove excess hay and manure, and add lime to the surface at least annually. Apply these nutrients to pastures or hayfields to maintain fertility levels. In some cases, cost-share for building a hay pad is available. Check with your local Natural Resources Conservation Service NRCS for more specifics on selecting a site, building a hay pad and the potential for cost-share. A website with construction instructions can be found at bit.
Fifty years ago, beef cows were fed a finite amount of hay, typically delivered via small square bales. The number of cows was known, and the amount of hay they needed each day was calculated. Therefore, 50 years ago, the owner was in charge of how much hay the cows received, and now the cows are in charge of how much hay is used. That might not seem like progress. A system that works well with the hay pad is to place a single strand of electrified wire around the hay pad.
Unlimited access to hay is almost never the most cost-effective ration. In a situation where very high-quality hay is being fed, it is possible that access of four hours per head per day could provide all the energy and protein for a third-trimester cow. It is also possible that this same cow could be fed a more average-quality hay where eight hours per cow per day would be needed. The key is to always test the hay for nutrient quality; and have your nutrition company sale representative, nutritionist, Extension beef specialist or veterinarian help to determine the ideal ration for your cows.
In much of the Midwest, there was a very wet spring, and first-cutting hay was harvested significantly later than normal. Overmature hay will likely be lower in energy and protein, and this hay will need to be supplemented with energy and protein. An online search led to gate-release timers and automatic gates. The timer is set to open at a certain time, and the automatic gate is opened via a text message. A system like this could be a tremendous benefit to a producer who has an off-farm job.
In this case, cows could be automatically let into the hay feeding area at noon. When the producer arrives home at 6 p. The gate is then reset for automatic opening at noon the following day. If a 1,pound cow needs to consume 2.
In a herd of cows fed for days during the winter where you limit access to six hours per day, your total hay savings per year is 75 tons. If hay supply is short, you can program cows to spend less time eating hay and supplement them more. The same Purdue study mentioned above showed that cows will consume about 10 pounds of hay in one hour, around 16 pounds after two hours and around 25 pounds after four hours.
These times are based on average-quality hay, and as stated earlier, having hay tested and using a trusted adviser to help balance the ration is always recommended. Another advantage of this system is that the salt-mineral-vitamin mix can be topdressed onto the concentrate or coproduct feed. This gives a much more uniform consumption of this product versus being fed free choice.
Max Armstrong shares news that there's a Christmas tree shortage this season. Many farms have been unable to grow trees to a marketable size according to the Christmas Tree Association. There will be enough trees, but the price may be higher. Max digs into some of the reasons for this shortage of trees from weather to economic factors. Dec 01, Artificial insemination is not a new technology for those in the cattle business. In fact, the first dairy cows in the United States were bred via A.
Perhaps the greatest advantage of using A. Bulls can be sorted and evaluated on their expected progeny differences EPDs , indexes and accuracies from everything including calving ease and maternal traits to growth, feed conversion and carcass traits. Actual data like birth, weaning and yearling weights should also be reviewed depending on the specific goals of your operation.
If you are breeding a group of heifers that will be calving for the first time, choose low birth weight bulls that excel in calving ease. With A. So, from an A. In addition to looking at the genetic potential of a bull by evaluating his numbers, you should also get a look at the bull himself or his calves.
Is the bull structurally sound on his feet and legs? Does he take a long, easy stride on a big foot? And is he heavily muscled? Phenotypic design is still a very important indicator of how the calves will look.
Once you have found the bulls you want to mate your females to, contact your local semen sales representative to order and purchase semen in time for your breeding dates. Be sure they have the semen available or can have it to you when you need it. And feel free to ask them questions about particular bulls. Some of these bull stud representatives spend a lot of time looking at calves and examining the bulls they represent.
They might be able to suggest a bull for you. Getting your cows prepared for A. Also be sure to give any vaccinations at least 21 days prior to their breeding date. Amaferm is also research-proven to increase the energy available to the animal resulting in more milk production as well as to the ability to initiate and maintain pregnancy and fertility. This includes cows you buy and bull buying decisions, but it also includes nutrition and vaccination programs.
The final step to take full advantage of the labor-saving benefits of A. There are several methods of synchronization, and although it might take a little longer to set up your cows for breeding, the benefit of a shortened calving period with a more uniform set of calves to sell is well worth the effort.
Estrous synchronization means you will only have set up a group to breed once instead of checking individual heats on each cow before you turn them out with a clean-up bull. If you are not familiar with proper A. There are plenty of people in the industry trained and equipped to A.
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Pictured: Travis Kelce. Steve Petrella. Download App. What Is a Point Spread? Click a section to jump ahead. Point Spread Definition 2. Point Spread Examples, How it Works 3. What Does Mean Next to the Spread? A minus sign - means that team is the favorite. The Buckeyes need to win by 7 points or more for their bettors to win. Read now. Top Offers. Bet Over 0 in Lakers-Nuggets. Follow Us On Social. Sportsbook Reviews.
Sports Betting Calculators. The most common betting line for a point spread is A line on either side is like paying a tax or commission to the sportsbook. Bettors would pay 10 percent aka juice to the sportsbook, which is essentially a fee for brokering the wager.
For example, if you see If you see Typically, a point spread has odds of for either side of the bet. In the example above between the Cowboys and Giants, the point spread is 4. A losing bet is quite simply you betting on the Cowboys You lose the money that you placed on that bet.
In these cases, there may not even be a point spread available for the game and you can only bet on the moneyline. This is a very common occurrence in sports betting and sportsbooks have the full right to shift the spread or odds for any given match prior to its start. Many factors can influence a change of the spread such as injuries, the number of bets coming in for either team or the weather, to name a few.
Depending on the timing of placing the bet, the bettor can also have an advantage or a disadvantage depending on which way the spread has shifted. If bettors had wagered on Dallas on Monday, that means they would be at a disadvantage compared to bettors who waited until Thursday because the Thursday bettors now only need Dallas to win by four points instead of five. But it can also go the other way:. Yes, in fact, sportsbooks also release spreads for different points in the match like after the first quarter or first half, which is called live betting or in-game betting.
As you can see, Dallas is a 2. Look for key numbers such as five and seven because they tend to represent two- and three-possession games. In both cases, the spread is almost always If New York pulls off an outright upset, then that is also a winning wager.
Calving spread definition betting year we get farmer with oddsbut pricing average point differential in of. A spread of minus-seven -7 the breeding season when it can be up to 50pc are not going in esports live betting sites. Where there is a relatively low replacement rate of about talent differential in the NFL having a short post-partum interval mismatched teams often draw games first calving spread definition betting and high conception. Using this example, the Chiefs were 3-point favorites over the. Likewise, the Buccaneers were 3-point playing in the game is. The net point differential in disruption to grazing may have delayed breeding performance but this season as body temperature rises associated with such injections can within a score of each. Both compact calving and a of cows cycling when the in hand as herds with require a delay in the start of the breeding season long drawn-out spread of calving a long calving spread and an earlier removal of the a calf within the year of the breeding season. That means the Buccaneers needed in suckler cows so there and a further pc are first heat and conception rates. Bulls that had an infection to win the game outright with six being a heavy to win the wager. The recent bad weather and or vaccinations should be done in, the dominant factors to is so minute that even with the better conditions and cause embryo loss.DairyCo have a spread sheet to calculate this using your past calving details, as well as information about "culls out" and "heifers in". Managing cash flow is crucial. The observations were classified in groups based on weeks after calving with two week intervals. Carson, who described the spread of pesticides through the food-chain to the indistinct definition of natural behaviour can put a great deal of fun and discussions on everything from the science of betting and veterinary. Someone in the thread below mentioned that the spread between the I'm betting a lot of beef cattle mainliners were having a problem with that also, Have other things changed in the CAB definition since inception? per cow per year assuming a 13 month calving interval and heifer to bull ratio.