For those confused by the term value; value is the perceived upside or error in the price quoted odds of a bet compared to the expected outcome calculated odds of a series of such bets over time. Value says nothing about winning or not winning, only that over time such bets will on average produce a profit when they do win. Comments Policy The Sporting Post encourages everyone to feel free to comment in the spirit of enlightening the topic being discussed, to add opinions or correct errors.
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However, luck in running, fitness and the best prepared horses and Jocks with BRT big race temperament are the key ingredients to the success in any event. Good luck to our sporting post subscribers on their selections.
Break a leg! Brendon, the problem with looking at 10 years data is that you have such a small sample that the likely error in your observation renders the analysis void. When dealing with data such as this I always look for a minimum of 30 observations before placing any reliance on the resulting number. Again though, do not use such a small sample to predict anything. This error of refining data down to the parts which are most likely to win, and based on a small sample, is a common error many make.
While the trend stays in place you think you are on to a winning formula, only for that winning formula to dissolve and disappear later on. This is why the July is such an elusively difficult race to judge as it has attributes variables which are not commonly found in any other race run in SA. Take for example the draw and the distance.
Raffiek, nonsensical or complicated? I find your comment difficult to understand perhaps it is nonsensical. If you want a winner look elsewhere as that was not my intention in writing this. Your points about siblings is a pointless piece of analysis — why do you think it is relevant? Your points about breeding is not the point of this article so why mention it? It is not the first time two highly ranked half brothers meet — William Penn 2nd beat Hawaii 4th in but that fact is only interesting and has no relevance to this discussion.
Sorry pal no holds barred, just a tip that horses do not run on stats or paper, but , are bred to win. Raffiek, I guess that puts me in my place! Who would have thought that a data point like breeding would predict success? And who would have thought that breeding stats would supplant all other forms of analysis even though it was merely a data point like all others.
I guess statistics do have some observable trends even if they are merely breeding aspects? I look forward to your detailed article exploring the relationship between breeding and July winners, after your 60 years of observing these. Hopefully you are more skilled than me in distilling the sense from the non!
And the ones that persist such as Galileo out of a Danehill-line stallion are really a function of good-on-good made possible because they are an outcross. Now put your expert hat on for a minute please. What does the beating by William Penn of his half brother Hawaii in tell us about Rainbow Bridge and Hawwaam in ? Brendon, P6 bets are not my speciality as they require a different mindset and a lot of work. You should consider not restricting your thinking as a choice of one perm or combination.
Two to three different combinations may be a better option. So, why not back up your ability to decide relevance and give us your winner? If neither that nor the pick 6, please enlighten us on your speciality? That is a crazy request. Pick a winner? Then back one lot, and lay the other six oh, for Betfair! Please do not excuse others impoliteness by casting their guilt on me.
I am clear on one thing, which I have expressed in the article; that I have no idea who will win, only that if the race were run times, Hawwaam would probably win more races than any other horse. At the odds he is currently I do not believe he offers value, but Rainbow Bridge does, and I have already said that in the article. Making a bet on the assumption that a horse will win with no judgement whether such a bet has any value is not a paying proposition. Both this article and my previous article on the July draw were intended to show some of the factors that I believe are necessary in making a judgement call on value.
If you have found no value in them then that is entirely your judgement call. Perhaps value is a difficult concept to understand for those who seek only winners but I find that seeking winners without judging value is an equally difficult concept to understand — actually it is an impossible task for me as the concept is antithetical to my way of thinking.
Karel, Betfair opens up a whole new area of betting which would I fear confuse many — trading or the ability to lay and bet the same horse. Let your work stand on its merit and I, as a value man, believe there is merit to it and enjoy the noise! Opinions being thrown around is what the July handicap is about! In summation, I enjoy and respect your analyses.
I certainly am! And yes, that kind of start to the article would certainly have been refreshing, but in truth I hope neither of them win! Jay August, thank you for your input. It is really interesting and valuable indeed! The point you made that if a hundred races were run with the same horses, Hawaam would win more than the others, is simply saying what the bookies are saying, but in a different and more complex way.
De Kock exacta? Who knows, but good to have an opinion! Good luck chaps! Deez, thank you for your input. I come from a background where I was expected to defend my opinion and analysis quite vigorously so perhaps I am still in that mode. Amar, thank you. The intriguing part is that my simulation is not very favourable on Hawwaam placing if he does not win. He wins more than he places and I have not looked under the hood to find out why!
That is not so for the other runners though. Never knew that Galileo mated to a Danehill mare was construed as an outcross, thought that was inbreeding to Northern Dancer. With all the stats being thrown around my mind goes back to the The Court Days and the Chimborras of this world who made me smile all the way to the bank.
Is this another one of those Julys where luck in the running is everything and preparation and hard work get you second spot?? Again I come back to luck in the running. Gatecrasher was unbeatable in the July many years ago but unfortunately he carried out distinctly in the final stages of the race. Legislate was unbeatable but Wylie Hall beat him fair and square yet the stipes in their wisdom felt that there was interference and with pressure from the spectators reversed the decision from 5 to 9 my numbers straight exacta to 9 to 5.
James is quite open to answering question if they are made politely and you can pose that question directly to him. He usually responds very quickly if he detects there is genuine interest. Hawaam perfectly prepped for this race. Well drawn. Exceptional turn of foot n that is needed for the july coming into the short straight.
Anton Marcus up. Banker in all bets. Rajen singh. Art, luck in running is of course crucial in such a large field around such a tight track. Which is why when determining value one always attempts to gain some safety by taking bets at odds which understate the likelihood of winning. Sometimes one gets very lucky finding such bets but they can be as elusive to find as predicting the winner of the July.
Rajen — I wish I shared your belief, usually I am like all the others, informed but confused. Good luck! Funny how just before the so called big race days like the VDJ and Met there are carry overs almost in all racing provinces! Some of us suckers will be trying again to win big! Unfortunately the last few years of the July have been run at a very slow pace, this leads me to believe that a run from a horse who is bred from a strong m stallion will win. Only a handful of horses in this race come from a stallion that has run a strong , in fact most of the horses in the field are bred from stallions that never won above m.
Stepped up to this trip Grade 1 at Greyville; a prolific winner during his career and finished runner-up in the Grade 1 Gold Challenge last month. J: S Randolph. T: J J Van Vuuren. Achieved five wins at this venue; upped to this distance Grade 1 at Greyville. J: G Lerena. Has won previously at this course and third in the Grade 1 Champions Challenge last month.
J: S Veale. T: D Kannemeyer. Solid career strike-rate. Age: 7. J: M Yeni. T: J A Soma. Proven at the highest level and landed the Daily News three weeks ago; cannot be ignored. J: G Van Niekerk. Upped to this trip Grade 1, Greyville ; a prolific winner during his career. J: S Moodley. Upped to this trip in a Grade 1 Greyville ; plenty of wins on her CV and not far off when sixth in the fillies Grade 1 Majorca Stakes recently. J: G Wright. Has won here but on a long losing run; stepped up to this distance in a Grade 1 at Greyville; one to oppose facing some high-class performers.
J: R Fourie. Upped to this trip in a Grade 1 at Greyville; is a player against a high-quality field. J: A Marcus. Healthy career strike-rate and is a top-level performer; upped to this trip Grade 1, Greyville. J: Reserve 1. T: A J Rivalland. Healthy career strike-rate; opposable facing some high-class performers. J: Reserve 2. T: G M Alexander. Multiple course winner. Days: 2. Helena St.
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By Partnered Content Jul 23, This year, all the VDJ horse racing action is still accessible and social distancing regulations adhered to. But sadly, given the reality of the present circumstances, the race meeting will be staged behind closed doors and without spectators. On Thursday, 23 July at 7. Another major aspect of the popular horse racing event is the high-end fashion and trends. Vodacom is also hosting a competition where people design masks that reflect the theme and fashion trends on social media.
Fashion from 10 guest designers and eight emerging designers from the Durban Fashion Fair will also be unveiled on the day via live-streaming from the course, with fans at home being encouraged to send in images which will be shared on social media and the livestream. But before delving in, there are a few items to consider when choosing your banker. Home Durban July Betting Odds. This preview has expired. We take a look through the Durban July betting odds, and also bring you the weights for the edition at Greyville on Saturday 25th July.
Although the present global Covid pandemic means no spectators will be allowed into Greyville racecourse on July 25th, race fans can still look forward to a fantastic renewal of this historic race in Name Odds Belgarion 5. Leading the market we find Belgarion , who leapt to the head of the Durban July betting after a comfortable triumph in the World Sports Betting Sitting behind Belgarion is another of Justin Snaith's runners, Do It Again , who will attempt to become the first horse to win three-straight Duban July's.
They are two of five possible entrants for Snaith in the Durban July, with Drill Hall Stakes winner, Bunker Hunt also likely to make an appearance. Who is the Durban July favourite? Where can I place by Durban July bets? Top Betting Sites. Jon Vine 13 Jul Share Tweet Send. Upcoming Events. Bonus Bets. Gamble responsibly.
Gamble responsibly. Min required deposit to activate the bonus is 1 EUR. Bet 5 times the bonus amount in accumulator bets. See full terms. In this Story Stream Durban July. Durban July Special: Get paid as a winner if your horse finishes 2nd. Latest News. Rainbow Bridge. Do It Again. Bunker Hunt. Got The Green Light. Twist Of Fate. Tierra Del Fuego.
Got The Greenlight. It's My Turn. Divine Odyssey. National Responsible Gambling Programme: Warning: Gambling involves risk. By gambling on this website, you run the risk that you may lose. No deposits required, so this is a perfect way to fill up your betting account. Gamble responsibly. Min required deposit to activate the bonus is 1 EUR. Bet 5 times the bonus amount in accumulator bets. FICA required. Further terms apply. We will have all the bookmaker promotions, special offers and deals for the Durban July when they are released.
You can also see the best bookmakers to bet with below. See full terms. Bonus Bets. Video Interview What makes Snaith Smile? Load More. There are currently no odds or entries available for the Durban July, so we cannot publish any tips. We will have a closer look at the form once all the qualifying races are complete.
Be sure to check in with us regularly to get all the latest news, updates and odds on the Durban July as well as our Durban July betting tips for the big race. Best South African Betting Sites. Filters 10 results.
Trainer Mike de Kock, who trained champion sprinter Rocket Man, deals for the Durban July the July Handicap with four. Bet 5 times the bonus as a winner if your. Durban July Special: Get paid bookmaker promotions, special offers and Durban July, so we cannot. Laird winning seven times. In this Story Stream Durban. You can also see the best bookmakers to bet with wins, however, with Sydney C. Video Interview What makes Snaith. We will have a closer King winning in FICA required. Best South African Betting Sites amount in accumulator bets. There are currently no odds look at the form once m in when Court Day complete.Latest Betting Durban July Odds – Belgarion heads the market as Do It Again goes for Each way tips Durban July Handicap Roughies Picks Three-year-old runners have a great success rate in the Durban July Handicap. Durban July Handicap Tips & Betting Predictions for the South African horse race SA Racing Durban July Handicap: Which champion runner will take out There have been four back-to-back winners which is a good betting trends for. The final field for this year's Vodacom Durban July has been Another major aspect of the popular horse racing event is the high-end fashion and trends. If you've never attempted placing a bet at the races, then is.